This article brought back memories of building Vungle. If you’d asked me back then what the TAM for in-app video advertising was, I’d have struggled to give a convincing answer—it was a nascent market, and mobile advertising itself wasn’t fully proven. But what we did know was the pain point: app developers needed a better way to monetize. That’s where we started.
Over time, the TAM grew because the market evolved, and we helped shape it. Mobile exploded, video became the preferred ad format, and suddenly the “small” niche we started with turned into a massive opportunity. But it wasn’t about chasing a big TAM from day one—it was about focusing on a sharp, immediate problem and trusting that expansion would come through execution and timing.
This is why I get wary when founders try to overinflate TAM projections. If I had to pitch Vungle’s TAM back then, it would’ve looked small—and a lot of investors would’ve passed. What mattered more was our ability to scale with the market as it grew. That’s why I agree with the article: it’s not the TAM you start with, but the TAM you create along the way.
Well written, comprehensive, and occasionally funny. The TAM Uncertainty Principle. Love it.
Key takeaway: "At inception stages, however, pinning a number on the ultimate TAM is much less important than understanding a founder’s vision and capacity for expansion over time".
I have referenced this article in a recent blog post of my own, bemoaning the uncreative TAM/SAM/SOM slide I still see too often, and challenging founders to make better use of their slide real estate.
This article brought back memories of building Vungle. If you’d asked me back then what the TAM for in-app video advertising was, I’d have struggled to give a convincing answer—it was a nascent market, and mobile advertising itself wasn’t fully proven. But what we did know was the pain point: app developers needed a better way to monetize. That’s where we started.
Over time, the TAM grew because the market evolved, and we helped shape it. Mobile exploded, video became the preferred ad format, and suddenly the “small” niche we started with turned into a massive opportunity. But it wasn’t about chasing a big TAM from day one—it was about focusing on a sharp, immediate problem and trusting that expansion would come through execution and timing.
This is why I get wary when founders try to overinflate TAM projections. If I had to pitch Vungle’s TAM back then, it would’ve looked small—and a lot of investors would’ve passed. What mattered more was our ability to scale with the market as it grew. That’s why I agree with the article: it’s not the TAM you start with, but the TAM you create along the way.
Nailed it! Thanks Zain, we'll have to quote you in advance next time :)
Well written, comprehensive, and occasionally funny. The TAM Uncertainty Principle. Love it.
Key takeaway: "At inception stages, however, pinning a number on the ultimate TAM is much less important than understanding a founder’s vision and capacity for expansion over time".
I have referenced this article in a recent blog post of my own, bemoaning the uncreative TAM/SAM/SOM slide I still see too often, and challenging founders to make better use of their slide real estate.
https://www.steeleconsultinggroup.com/post/how-to-describe-your-market-size-to-build-credibility-with-your-vc-audience